Introductory Papers and Guides

Original Paper on DCA

Vickers AJ, Elkin EB. Decision curve analysis: a novel method for evaluating prediction models. Med Decis Making. 2006 Nov-Dec;26(6):565-74. PMID: 17099194.

General Introduction to DCA

Vickers AJ, Van Calster B, Steyerberg EW. Net benefit approaches to the evaluation of prediction models, molecular markers, and diagnostic tests. BMJ. 2016 Jan 25;352:i6. PMID: 26810254.

How to Understand a Decision Curve

Van Calster B, Wynants L, Riley RD, et al. Methodology over metrics: current scientific standards are a disservice to patients and society. Diagn Progn Res. 2019 Dec 30;3:23. PMID: 31890176.

Guide for Investigators on Reporting Decision Curves

Vickers AJ, Cronin AM, Gönen M, et al. A simple decision analytic solution to the comparison of two binary diagnostic tests. J Clin Epidemiol. 2018 Jul;99:4-10. PMID: 29596968.

Extensions to DCA

Applications to Survival Time Data among others

Vickers AJ, Elkin EB. Decision curve analysis: extensions to aid interpretation, including the clinical impact curve, time dependence, and application to individual patients. Med Decis Making. 2007 Sep-Oct;27(5):696-702. PMID: 19036144.

DCA & Treatment Response: Model Evaluation

Vickers AJ, Elkin EB. Decision curve analysis for the evaluation of treatment response prediction models. J Clin Oncol. 2007 Jun 1;25(16):2272-3. PMID: 17550609.

DCA & Treatment Response: Trial Design

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17022818/

Discussion Papers and Theoretical Background

General Theoretical Background to DCA

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19132141/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/20172362/

Vickers AJ, Van Calster B. An introduction to decision curve analysis. J Clin Epidemiol. 2010 May;63(5): 513-6. PMID: 19132141.

Vickers AJ, Van Calster B. Steyerberg E. Net benefit: a new approach to assessing prediction model performance. Epidemiology. 2010 Mar;21(2): 260-3. PMID: 20172362.

Mathematical Underpinnings of DCA through Relationship to Relative Utility (Similar Method)

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/20069131/

Widely Cited First Prediction Model Evaluation Paper to Introduce 3-Step Approach of Discrimination, Calibration, Clinical Utility

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/20010215/

Editorials and Commentaries Recommending DCA in Major Journals

Editorials recommending DCA Published in Major Journals

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/27247223/

Editorials recommending DCA Published in Major Journals

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26810254/

Editorials recommending DCA Published in Major Journals

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25626037/

Editorials recommending DCA Published in Major Journals

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/22910942/

Editorials recommending DCA Published in Major Journals

https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M22-0844

Editorials recommending DCA Published in Major Journals

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41746-021-00549-7

Newly Added

Paper

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30819037/

Christodoulou E, et al. 

A systematic review shows no performance benefit of machine learning over logistic regression for clinical prediction models. J Clin Epidemiol 2019;110:12–22.

Jung K, et al. 

A framework for making predictive models useful in practice. J Am Med Inform Assoc 2021; 28 (6): 1149–58.

Calculating net benefit under resource constraints

Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association, Singh, Karandeep, February 22, 2023.

https://academic.oup.com/jamia/advance-article-abstract/doi/10.1093/jamia/ocad006/7051008?utm_source=advanceaccess&utm_campaign=jamia&utm_medium=email

R code for calculating net benefit under resource constraints

https://github.com/ML4LHS/modelrecon

Andrew’s Suggested Paper

doi:10.7326/M22-0844

Link from DCA site

https://www.fharrell.com/post/edca/

Paper Recommending DCA for Evaluating Machine Learning Prediction Studies

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0895435623000550